What Drives Youth Development; A Follow-Up

As quite a few people (thanks for that!) have read yesterday, I have started simulating scenario’s to match Shrewnaldo’s research from a few years ago on factors that drive youth development. Yesterday’s post showed us that the hidden attribute Professionalism seems to be a driving force behind proper development, whilst Determination, by many considered an absolutely crucial factor, yielded slightly more peculiar results, with some improvements across the board, but the range of this development being rather flat and oddly favored towards lower determination.

Naturally, such results demand a follow-up post. As Shrewnaldo pointed out earlier, I haven’t looked at the influence of ambition and as Ben (@ZeGerman) pointed out, it should be interesting to see if I made a direct link to Determination and Professionalism, altering both attributes in a batch of players to see how they interact. All in all, that should give me enough to do to keep busy tonight and hopefully uncover some more data.

The approach

In order to research the influence of these factors, I created six equal newgens in an FM16 save with the help of FMRTE. All four have similar positions and age. All of their attributes, including hidden, are set to 10, except for the variables I want to research. In this case, there will be two scenario’s to look at. In the ambition experiment, I will alter the hidden attribute Ambition in four of these players to different values, respectively 1, 8, 14 and 20. In the experiment where I look at the interaction between Professionalism and Determination, I will create six players and edit their attributes as so:

  1. Player 1: 1 Det, 1 Prof
  2. Player 2: 8 Det, 8 Prof
  3. Player 3: 14 Det, 14 Prof
  4. Player 4: 20 Det, 20 Prof
  5. Player 5: 1 Det, 20 Prof
  6. Player 6: 20 Det, 1 Prof

As before, I will holiday the save for half a season and see how the players have developed. I will note their development in four areas:

  1. Technical;
  2. Mental;
  3. Physical
  4. Current ability.

My expectations

The ambition experiment will not yield surprising results. I am hoping and expecting to match Shrewnaldo’s outcomes in showing that Ambition is another driving factor in development. The second experiment is more tricky, as I’m editing two variables instead of one and I lack an actual control group within the experiment itself, rather referring to yesterday’s experiments as my control group. Yesterday’s results were strange, as they offered a strange spread between the various players, which does not definitively shows which influence determination has on development. I am hoping today’s results

The ambition experiment

Let’s start off by simply introducing the four newgens I have created. All four are identical except for their Ambition attribute.

2dev18 2dev17 2dev16 2dev15

Six months into the game the players look like this.

2dev24 2dev23 2dev22 2dev21

When we add up the total points of progress pro area and check FMRTE to see how their development in CA has been shaped, we end up with the following numbers.

2dev19

A more graphic display will show the results more clearly.

Player 1: 1 Amb Player 2: 8 Amb Player 3: 14 Amb Player 4: 20 Amb
Player 1: 1 Amb
Player 2: 8 Amb
Player 3: 14 Amb
Player 4: 20 Amb

This isn’t quite what I expected. The attribute development for the not completely shit players is nearly identical and there appear to be only minor differences in Current Ability development. Whilst Ambition does influence development, it appears that a high Ambition attribute is not making a massive difference compared to having a medium level Ambition attribute. Again, this raises more questions rather than providing actual answers.

The determination and professional experiment

Let’s start off by simply introducing the six newgens I have created. All six are identical except for their Professionalism and Determination attributes.

2dev06 2dev05 2dev04 2dev03 2dev02 2dev01

Six months into the game the players look like this.

2dev14 2dev13 2dev12 2dev11 2dev10 2dev09

When we add up the total points of progress pro area and check FMRTE to see how their development in CA has been shaped, we end up with the following numbers.

2dev07

A more graphic display will show the results more clearly.

Player 1: 1 Det, 1 Prof Player 2: 8 Det, 8 Prof Player 3: 14 Det, 14 Prof Player 4: 20 Det, 20 Prof Player 5: 1 Det, 20 Prof Player 6: 20 Det, 1 Prof
Player 1: 1 Det, 1 Prof
Player 2: 8 Det, 8 Prof
Player 3: 14 Det, 14 Prof
Player 4: 20 Det, 20 Prof
Player 5: 1 Det, 20 Prof
Player 6: 20 Det, 1 Prof

The first four players developed as expected, each player progressively getting better than the others, with a small snag concerning player 2, which in turn can be explained because he got loaned to Tranmere, a club with lesser facilities. The development curve of a player with high determination and high professionalism is quite spectacular. What is interesting is what I like to refer to as basic development. Player 1, who was absolutely dire in all aspects, still shows signs of development, which must have been caused by other factors, such as the facilities. This is basic development.

For his Technical attributes, basic development seems to be around +28 in six months time. For his Mental attributes, basic development seems to be around +20 in six months time. For his Physical attributes, basic development seems to be around +14 in six months time. The additional development for the other players, mostly player 3 and player 4, is most likely caused by the right attributes.

I would also like to distinguish between the development of attributes and the development of Current Ability (CA from here on). The basic CA development appears to be 0, whereas the players with higher Professionalism attributes develop their CA much quicker, seemingly independent of their attribute development, which has a basic value is and seems less impacted by Professionalism and Determination.

UPDATE 27-07-2016

Lifted from the comments and too good not to share.

The increase in attributes without any change in CA is not “basic development” but just the game engine trying to adjust the attributes to correspond the CA that is too high for a player with all attributes set to 10.
As far as I know all development affects increases CA which in turn increases attributes in according to team and individual training.

I think it’s also given that determination is purely on-pitch attribute nowadays (this was changed a few years a back), but players with high determination tend to play better (especially when trailing, after making mistake etc.) and gets better ratings -> develop more.

Advertisements

21 thoughts on “What Drives Youth Development; A Follow-Up

  1. I have always looked at ambition as a two way deal. Mostly ambition is a good thing but in a team setting in can also have detrimental effects. Great read buddy!

    Like

  2. Nice post, I can see now I made determination way to much of a priority and ditched too many potential very good scouted players based on it. Player personality is very often underated.

    Like

  3. The increase in attributes without any change in CA is not “basic development” but just the game engine trying to adjust the attributes to correspond the CA that is too high for a player with all attributes set to 10.
    As far as I know all development affects increases CA which in turn increases attributes in according to team and individual training.

    I think it’s also given that determination is purely on-pitch attribute nowadays (this was changed a few years a back), but players with high determination tend to play better (especially when trailing, after making mistake etc.) and gets better ratings -> develop more.

    It is still a bit of mystery to me how much ambition affects development but it seems have some effect – not just nearly as much as professionalism. Some times though young players with high ambition end up playing at too high level too early and not getting enough games -> development stalls.

    Like

  4. Just to add to discussion, I used to be a researcher a few years ago, so the discussion around the Determination attribute has always amused me, as long as I was a researcher until FM11 or 12, the determination attribute was an in match only attribute. It was related to how a player reacted during matches to coming under etc. I checked with a mate of mine that started researching after FM15 and he says the determination attribute is the same now. It might be different the years between I did research and the when my mate started researching. The attribute that are essential for development are Proffesionalism. Other factors that are important are playing time, club, facilities and coaches. Ambition has more to do with development, but most how a player do decsions about what clubs to choose, search bigger opportunities etc.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s